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Mr. X. CEO of the XYZ Ltd. is studying his company chances of being awarded an important contract regarding sewer maintenance system from the government of Delhi. In this regard two independent events are of particular interest. First event is that XYZ Ltd's main competitor, ABC Ltd is conducting drainage research, which it hopes may complete before the contract award deadline. Second event is that there are rumors of investigation by government of Delhi of all recent contracts of which XYZ Ltd's is not. If ABC Ltd finishes it's research and there is no investigation, then XYZ Ltd's probability of being awarded the contract is 0.66 . If there is an investigation but ABC Ltd doesn't finish it's research, the probability is 0.73 . If both events occur, the probability is 0.59 and it neither occurs the probability is 0.85.
(a) Calculate the probability of XYZ Ltd's being awarded the contract if the probability of investigation is 0.80 and the probability of ABC Ltd completing it's research in time is 0.85

RĂ©pondre :

LAURANCEVIZ
0,2*0,15*0,85If ABC Ltd finishes it's research and there is no investigation,
this probability is :  0,2 * 0,85 
 then XYZ Ltd's probability of being awarded the contract is 0.66 .
so  in  this case   prob(xyz)= 0,2*0,85*0,66
 If there is an investigation but ABC Ltd doesn't finish it's research,
  (0,8 * 0,15) the probability is 0.73 . 
so  in this case   p(xyz)= 0,73*0,8*0,15
 
If both events occur( 0,8 *0,85) 
the probability is 0.59   so   p(xyz)= 0,8*0,85*0,59
and it neither occurs  ( 0,2*0,15) 
the probability is 0.85.         so  p(xyz)= 0,2*0,15*0,85
(a) the probability of XYZ Ltd's being awarded the contract is the sum of the four probabilities
0,2*0,15*0,85 +0,8*0,85*0,59+0,73*0,8*0,15+0,2*0,85*0,66 = 0, 6265

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